After five massive global surprises in 2008-2009 (see my earlier Comment entitled "The Fifth Surprise", November 2009), there is apparently yet more to come, given the remarkable dynamics of the times. The ‘new' event gradually coming...
SARB Governor Marcus today announced no change to interest rates, following a two day meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. Though there was a tremendous change in presentation style, there was none in policy substance. The Governor presented her...
In this special report Cees looks forward at both the global and local economic situation "After a great fall (2008), success in arresting the fall and stabilizing the economy on a low level of capacity utilization (2009), growth prospects tend to...
Electricity output has continued a steady, if gradual, recovery since March 2009, by now nearly matching the September 2008 level (output rising by 8.8% by August 2009). Unfortunately, this probably also implies that our electricity constraint is coming...
In the twelve months to September 2009, the South African economy lost 366 000 formal jobs. This is 4% of the 9.4 million formal labour force deployed in 3Q2008 (the peak of the employment cycle). In addition, a further 290 000 non-agricultural informal...
The horns of the bull, with their enveloping wings and powerful center, reminds strongly of the current economic policy configuration in South Africa. The one wing is traditionally a strong one, dominated by a pragmatic conservative Minister of Finance...
Late last year our financial markets made an early bet, namely that the global commodity inflation surge had been broken, recession loomed and inflation would fall deep. Also, probably more controversially, that the Rand would not keep plunging and would...
South Africa has a long history of being impacted by the outside world. Such influences were often mostly a mixed blessing, having positive and negative sides. Examples of global intrusions include the arrival of the Dutch in the 1650s, the British from...
During August our gross foreign reserves jumped by $2bn to $38bn even as the Rand firmed through 7.70:$. Yet the reserve gain wasn’t due to SARB forex accumulation. Instead, the reserve gain was all bookkeeping, mainly getting SDR 1.4bn from the...
This recession is deep and long because it is really four serial recessionary shocks creating a major extended economic contraction. Indeed, we got lucky as there could have been a fifth shock, further deepening the recession experience. But happily it...
At cyclical bottoms, beginning recovery hardly feels like recovery. It feels far more like a funeral. Take car sales. Ours peaked at 714 000 units in 2006. The market was told to look for a 50% increase by 2010, topping one million. Instead sales halved...
So have our animal spirits been dealt a fatal blow then? Was it a death blow, from which you don’t come back (rest in peace, my trusted friend), or was it a glancing blow (good for a monumental headache but not much more)? Have we in James Bond’s...